A survey did the rounds yesterday from Informa Telecoms & Media (take the survey here). It was a “future of TV” survey, with the normal questions about how you see the TV and advertising changing over the next few years.
This survey was different in a couple of respects: It put a very specific timeline on the questions, of three years, and it got at the notion of change from several different angles. For instance, pairing “what will the primary mode of accessing the TV be” with “what will you use to control it”, prods you to question all aspects of consuming video and break it down into its component parts.
The three-year timeframe undoubtedly will have a significant impact on responses, as the pace of social change always lags technological (cable will be around a long time after people have Netflix or other OTT services, because they’ve had cable for decades, and expect it).
But there are other head-scratchers: “How will consumer spending on the following services (DVD’s, VOD, OTT etc) change” vs. “which factors will influence consumers the most when subscribing” (sports, movies, bundling, price).
Finally, this question:
Clearly, the answer must be based on “who has the most people / best user data?”
Cable and telco will still have a large user base in three years. They collect excellent data on subscribers because it is across quad-play services. But often this data is in silos, and doesn’t form the complete picture of a user that an advertiser would like.
OEMs, for the large part, don’t collect the data. Content providers collect some info, depending on their relationships with distributors and their nascent online ventures. Agencies, for the most part, are prevented from collecting anything but aggregate data because they don’t own the end relationship.
Apple, Amazon and Netflix collect excellent data, but don’t cover live and are not advertising driven models.
Which leaves social networks and social media. Or, more specifically, Facebook and YouTube, possibly Hulu, Twitter.
According to this article in Streaming Media, online spending is up 3x over last year, in the period following the super bowl. Brands are looking to online channels to satisfy their needs, and are driving up CPMs as they insist in pre-roll (vs. interstitial, or post).
There is a clear trend here. Video advertising has shown its persuasive power over decades of TV viewing. Brands want to harness that power, but are looking for concrete metrics that will show results, and allow them to reach more and more specific audiences. To answer the survey question above, you need to know who’s collecting the best data. As online begins to deliver both audiences and metrics, its importance will rise.